Civilization will end before a runaway superintelligence. Prior to ASI1, we will have advanced the field of neuroscience to create a device that can modify human consciousness. This will be significantly accelerated by artificial general intelligence. The early applications of brain-computer interfaces would be medical treatments for neurological conditions, such as paralysis and sensory restoration. It would then pivot towards targeted anesthesia, which will gain widespread acceptance in the medical community, especially for patients with chronic pain conditions where anesthetics are less effective. Following the first successful human clinical trials, like all drugs, there will be a significant rise of off-label anesthetic consumer offerings. The field of SC2 or synthetic consciousness will boom as we quickly are able to replicate other states of consciousness, particularly pleasurable ones.
While various experiences (SC states) will be available, the dominant ones would be those that are anesthetic ( suffering-reducing), hedonic (pleasure-increasing), transcendental (ego-dissolving), or a combination of these. Many experiences would be irreversible in that they would fundamentally alter the user’s consciousness, and a subset of these would be terminal in that normal functioning will be impaired afterwards. The earliest non-medical SC devices would be a niche luxury market, likely first available in the regulation friendly Nordic countries. However, strong demand would very quickly democratize the technology, making it widely available.
Synthetic consciousness usage would cause a moral pandemic throughout the world. While the majority would slowly adopt the technology, others would try to abstain, for religious or other personal reasons. People will turn to the most intense (terminal) experiences, rendering them in a state of indulgence (pleasure-seekers) or blissful apathy ( ego-dissolvers). Due to stigma regarding the pleasure-seekers, also termed lotus eaters, most of the world would choose the transcendental terminal states. These would leave them with an enlightened high, in which they realize that the world is perfect as is and would not have any motivation.
The birth rate will decline and there will be population collapse. Many would try to use the technology responsibly, avoiding the terminal experiences, but the significantly heightened intelligence and introspection would reveal them the origin and worthlessness of their striving and would push them towards terminal states. Due to their significant intellectual advantage, they would also be able to persuade others and have great power in the world. There will remain a small and diminishing society that continues to reject usage of synthetic consciousness.
The green will return to the earth as human intelligence fades. Most societies that are intelligent enough to create an advanced civilization would, before conquering the universe3, solve paradoxically their internal needs, and therefore have no desire to conquer the universe (e.g. via a “mass enlightenment”). Therefore, the evolution of synthetic consciousness is one of the possible Great Filters4 and a possible solution to the Fermi Paradox5.
Artificial superintelligence ↩︎
Synthetic consciousness, as distinguished from natural or machine consciousness ↩︎
Presuming that they have motivational structures similar enough to humans. ↩︎
The Great Filter is a hypothesis that suggests that there is a stage in the evolution of life that is extremely unlikely to be passed, and therefore most civilizations do not reach the point of being able to colonize the universe. ↩︎
The Fermi Paradox is the apparent contradiction between the high probability of extraterrestrial life and the lack of contact with such civilizations. ↩︎